2018 铁定加息，美联储主席国会证词全文（中英文）

2018铁定加息，

美联储主席国会证词全文（中英文）

北京时间周二(2月27日)，美联储主席鲍威尔发表国会证词称，自己和耶伦致力于提供连续的货币政策。需要进一步逐渐加息，经济前景依旧强劲。

鲍威尔在提前准备好的书面证词中指出，美国经济从2017年下半年开始增长强劲，失业率下跌至4.1%，达到2000年12月来的最低水平。强劲的劳动力市场持续支撑家庭收入和消费者支出的增长，贸易伙伴的经济增长也进一步支撑美国的出口。

货币政策方面将维持逐渐退出宽松，当前联邦利率已上升至1.25%-1.5%，去年10月美联储也开始了缩减债券持有，渐进正常化政策将持续支撑强劲的劳动力市场并刺激通胀回到2%。鲍威尔也强调，公开市场委员会（FOMC，即美联储的货币政策决策机构）会在避免经济过热和刺激核心通胀指数达到2%的目标间取得平衡。他特别指出，美国财政政策比过去几年更为积极，海外市场对美国出口的需求也更为强劲，这些局面是跟几年前截然不同的。虽然最近出现了一些波动，资本市场还是较为宽松。鲍威尔称，在FOMC看来，进一步渐进加息是同时达到两个目标的最好办法。

美国经济面临的部分阻力已经成为尾部风险。薪资应当以更快速度增长。FOMC认为风险基本均衡，正密切关注通胀，必须努力求得平衡以在提升通胀的同时避免经济过热。

鲍威尔表示，财政政策更具刺激性，海外需求变得更强劲，强劲的就业市场将支持收入和支出。

美联储悖论：必要的加息=不可避免的危机

根据泰勒规则，经济每衰退1个百分点，美联储就需要将利率下调1个百分点。不过，2008年之后美联储利率并未把利率调降至应有的-2%，取而代之的是零利率和QE。

而经济研究显示，经济衰退时美联储需要将利率至少下调3个百分点以刺激经济。2008年时美联储曾立即将利率从5%调降至0%。

鉴于当前利率仅为1.5%，美联储无法在下次经济衰退时再降息3个百分点而不触发负利率。即便基于美联储当前的预期，他们也将需要两年时间将利率上调至3%。这意味着美联储在同时间和另一轮经济衰退赛跑。

那么，未来两年哪种情况会先出现？答案是：无所谓，因为两种情况都会发生。

Palisade Research的分析师将这称之为“美联储的悖论”。历史表明，美联储每一次加息都会引起经济放缓，或者爆发某种形式的危机。

利率上升将影响方方面面。学贷、信用卡、车贷、房贷等一系列债务将把美国民众压得喘不过气，利率上升2个百分点将导致利息大幅增加；就连对冲基金和投资银行也将遭殃，因为他们利用债务，也就是所谓的杠杆，来购买股票、债券以及其他资产。这也是为何过去30年美联储加息一、两年后最终必须降息的原因，而且利率甚至会降至低于降息开始前的水平。

不过，利率上调可能对某些金融机构是好事，北京时间27日晚彭博消息，在美国利率走高，贷款增长加速的带动下，摩根大通未来几年利润可能增加70亿美元。根据公司网站上发布的一份报告，摩根大通将2017年中期税前盈利预期从400亿美元左右提高至不超过470亿美元。该公司表示，美国税制改革将使有形普通股权益的回报率提高至多3个百分点。“更乐观的前景”看起来与我们的预测相当一致，和摩根大通作为专营投资机构的身份相符，该行为盈利增长做好了充分准备，Susan Roth Katzke等瑞信分析师在一份报告中写道。

随着利率上升， 摩根大通预计去年通过的共和党税收改革案将带来巨额的非经常性收益。

美股周二午盘小幅下滑，投资者正在评估美联储官员讲话与经济数据。

加息是否会再次导致美国股市震荡？对人民币而言，贬值的风险是否加大？面对接下来的持续加息，是否应该重新评估一下你的投资组合？

以下是美联储主席国会证词全文

（中文翻译仅供参考）

February 27, 2018

Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

Chairman Jerome H. Powell

Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, D.C.

Chairman Hensarling, Ranking Member Waters, and members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.

On the occasion of my first appearance before this Committee as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, I want to express my appreciation for my predecessor, Chair Janet Yellen, and her important contributions. During her term as Chair, the economy continued to strengthen and Federal Reserve policymakers began to normalize both the level of interest rates and the size of the balance sheet. Together, Chair Yellen and I have worked to ensure a smooth leadership transition and provide for continuity in monetary policy. I also want to express my appreciation for my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Finally, I want to affirm my continued support for the objectives assigned to us by the Congress--maximum employment and price stability--and for transparency about the Federal Reserve's policies and programs. Transparency is the foundation for our accountability, and I am committed to clearly explaining what we are doing and why we are doing it. Today I will briefly discuss the current economic situation and outlook before turning to monetary policy.

我很高兴向国会提交美联储半年度的货币政策报告。

在我作为美联储主席第一次给委员会作证词之前，我首先要对我的前任主席珍妮特·耶伦和她的重要贡献表示感谢。在她担任主席期间，经济继续加强，美联储的政策制定者开始将利率水平和资产负债表的规模正常化。我和耶伦共同努力，确保领导层平稳过渡，并为货币政策的连续性提供保障。我还想对我在联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的同事表示感谢。最后，我要申明，我继续支持国会赋予我们的目标——确保最大限度的就业和价格稳定——以及美联储政策和计划的透明度。透明度是我们的责任的基础，我承诺要清楚地解释我们正在做什么以及我们为什么要这样做。今天我将简要讨论一下当前的经济形势和前景，然后再转向货币政策。

Current Economic Situation and Outlook
The U.S. economy grew at a solid pace over the second half of 2017 and into this year. Monthly job gains averaged 179,000 from July through December, and payrolls rose an additional 200,000 in January. This pace of job growth was sufficient to push the unemployment rate down to 4.1 percent, about 3/4 percentage point lower than a year earlier and the lowest level since December 2000. In addition, the labor force participation rate remained roughly unchanged, on net, as it has for the past several years--that is a sign of job market strength, given that retiring baby boomers are putting downward pressure on the participation rate. Strong job gains in recent years have led to widespread reductions in unemployment across the income spectrum and for all major demographic groups. For example, the unemployment rate for adults without a high school education has fallen from about 15 percent in 2009 to 5-1/2 percent in January of this year, while the jobless rate for those with a college degree has moved down from 5 percent to 2 percent over the same period. In addition, unemployment rates for African Americans and Hispanics are now at or below rates seen before the recession, although they are still significantly above the rate for whites. Wages have continued to grow moderately, with a modest acceleration in some measures, although the extent of the pickup likely has been damped in part by the weak pace of productivity growth in recent years.

当前的经济形势和前景

从2017年下半年到今年目前，美国经济稳步增长。从7月到12月，月平均就业人数为17.9万人，1月份就业人数增加了20万人。这种就业增长速度足以将失业率降至4.1%，比去年同期低3/4个百分点，是自2000年12月以来的最低水平。此外，劳动力参与率基本上保持不变，就像过去几年一样，这是就业市场的强劲表现，因为婴儿潮一代的退休给参与率带来了下行压力。近年来强劲的就业增长已导致收入范围内的失业率普遍下降，所有主要人口群体的失业率都有所下降。例如, 成年人没有高中学历的失业率已经从2009年的约15%下降到今年1月份的5.5%； 而那些拥有大学学位的失业率已经在同一时期从5%降至2%。此外，非裔美国人和拉美裔人的失业率目前或低于经济衰退前的水平，尽管仍明显高于白人的失业率。工资水平继续适度增长，在一些指标上有适度的加速增长，但在一定程度上，由于近年来生产率增长缓慢，这种回升的程度可能有所减弱。

Turning from the labor market to production, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of about 3 percent in the second half of 2017, 1 percentage point faster than its pace in the first half of the year. Economic growth in the second half was led by solid gains in consumer spending, supported by rising household incomes and wealth, and upbeat sentiment. In addition, growth in business investment stepped up sharply last year, which should support higher productivity growth in time. The housing market has continued to improve slowly. Economic activity abroad also has been solid in recent quarters, and the associated strengthening in the demand for U.S. exports has provided considerable support to our manufacturing industry.

现在让我们从劳动力市场转向生产，经通胀调整后的国内生产总值(gdp)在2017年下半年的年增长率约为3%，比上半年的增速率高了1个百分点。下半年的经济增长是由消费支出的强劲增长带动的，家庭收入和财富的增长以及乐观的情绪支撑着经济增长。此外，去年商业投资的增长大幅加快，这应该有助于提高生产率。房地产市场继续缓慢改善。最近几个季度，国外的经济活动也很稳定，而相关的美国出口需求的增强为我们的制造业提供了相当大的支持。

Against this backdrop of solid growth and a strong labor market, inflation has been low and stable. In fact, inflation has continued to run below the 2 percent rate that the FOMC judges to be most consistent over the longer run with our congressional mandate. Overall consumer prices, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), increased 1.7 percent in the 12 months ending in December, about the same as in 2016. The core PCE price index, which excludes the prices of energy and food items and is a better indicator of future inflation, rose 1.5 percent over the same period, somewhat less than in the previous year. We continue to view some of the shortfall in inflation last year as likely reflecting transitory influences that we do not expect will repeat; consistent with this view, the monthly readings were a little higher toward the end of the year than in earlier months.

在经济稳健增长和劳动力市场强劲的背景下，通货膨胀率一直很低、稳定。事实上, 一直低于联邦公开市场委员会所认为、国会所确定的2%水平。根据个人消费支出价格指数(PCE)衡量，总体消费者价格在截至2017年12月底的12个月里增长了1.7%，与2016年持平。剔除能源和食品价格的核心PCE价格指数在同一时期上涨了1.5%，略低于前一年的水平。我们仍然认为，去年通货膨胀的一些不足可能反映了我们预计不会重复的短期影响;与这一观点一致的是，在今年年底之前的月度数据比前几个月要高一些。

After easing substantially during 2017, financial conditions in the United States have reversed some of that easing. At this point, we do not see these developments as weighing heavily on the outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation. Indeed, the economic outlook remains strong. The robust job market should continue to support growth in household incomes and consumer spending, solid economic growth among our trading partners should lead to further gains in U.S. exports, and upbeat business sentiment and strong sales growth will likely continue to boost business investment. Moreover, fiscal policy is becoming more stimulative. In this environment, we anticipate that inflation on a 12-month basis will move up this year and stabilize around the FOMC's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Wages should increase at a faster pace as well. The Committee views the near-term risks to the economic outlook as roughly balanced but will continue to monitor inflation developments closely.

在2017年大幅放松之后，美国的金融状况扭转了一些宽松政策。在这一点上，我们不认为这些发展会严重影响经济活动、劳动力市场和通货膨胀的前景。事实上，经济前景依然强劲。强劲的就业市场应该会继续支持家庭收入和消费支出的增长，我们贸易伙伴之间稳固的经济增长应该会导致美国出口的进一步增长，乐观的商业信心和强劲的销售增长可能会继续促进商业投资。此外，财政政策正变得更加刺激。在这种环境下，我们预计以12个月为周期的通货膨胀率将在今年上升，并稳定在FOMC 2%的中期目标。工资也应该以更快的速度增长。本委员会认为，近期经济前景面临的风险大致是平衡的，但将继续密切监测通胀的发展。

Monetary Policy
I will now turn to monetary policy. The Congress has assigned us the goals of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Over the second half of 2017, the FOMC continued to gradually reduce monetary policy accommodation. Specifically, we raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at our December meeting, bringing the target to a range of 1-1/4 to 1-1/2 percent. In addition, in October we initiated a balance sheet normalization program to gradually reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings. That program has been proceeding smoothly. These interest rate and balance sheet actions reflect the Committee's view that gradually reducing monetary policy accommodation will sustain a strong labor market while fostering a return of inflation to 2 percent.

货币政策

现在我来谈谈货币政策。国会给我们所下的目标是：促进就业最大化和物价稳定。在2017年下半年，联邦公开市场委员会继续逐步减少货币政策宽松。具体来说，我们在12月份的会议上把联邦基金利率的目标范围提高了1/4个百分点，将目标利率范围扩大到1.25 %至1.5%。此外，在10月，我们启动了资产负债表正常化计划，逐步减少美联储的证券持有量。那个计划进展顺利。这些利率和资产负债表的行动反映了委员会的观点，即逐步减少货币政策的宽松政策将维持一个强劲的劳动力市场，同时将通货膨胀率提高到2%。

In gauging the appropriate path for monetary policy over the next few years, the FOMC will continue to strike a balance between avoiding an overheated economy and bringing PCE price inflation to 2 percent on a sustained basis. While many factors shape the economic outlook, some of the headwinds the U.S. economy faced in previous years have turned into tailwinds: In particular, fiscal policy has become more stimulative and foreign demand for U.S. exports is on a firmer trajectory. Despite the recent volatility, financial conditions remain accommodative. At the same time, inflation remains below our 2 percent longer-run objective. In the FOMC's view, further gradual increases in the federal funds rate will best promote attainment of both of our objectives. As always, the path of monetary policy will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

在衡量未来几年货币政策的适当路径时，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)将继续在避免过热的经济和将PCE价格通胀率维持在2%之间取得平衡。尽管许多因素影响了经济前景，但美国经济在过去几年面临的一些逆风已经变成了顺风:特别是，财政政策已经变得更加刺激，而外国对美国出口的需求则更加强劲。尽管最近出现了波动，但金融状况依然宽松。与此同时，通胀仍低于我们2%的长期目标。联邦公开市场委员会认为，联邦基金利率的进一步逐步提高将最好地促进实现这两个目标。与以往一样，货币政策的路径将取决于经济前景，正如数据所告知的那样。

In evaluating the stance of monetary policy, the FOMC routinely consults monetary policy rules that connect prescriptions for the policy rate with variables associated with our mandated objectives. Personally, I find these rule prescriptions helpful. Careful judgments are required about the measurement of the variables used, as well as about the implications of the many issues these rules do not take into account. I would like to note that this Monetary Policy Report provides further discussion of monetary policy rules and their role in the Federal Reserve's policy process, extending the analysis we introduced in July.

Thank you. I would be pleased to take your questions.

在评估货币政策的立场时，联邦公开市场委员会通常会参考货币政策规则，这些规则将政策利率与与我们规定的目标相关的变量联系起来。就我个人而言，我觉得这些规则很有帮助。对于所使用的参数变量的评估，以及关于这些规则所涉及的许多问题的影响，都需要谨慎的判断。我想指出，刚刚公布的货币政策报告进一步讨论了货币政策规则及其在美联储政策过程中的作用，这份报告是我们在7月推出的分析结果的延伸。

谢谢你！我很乐意回答你们的问题。